NBA report card: week of 2026-03-09 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
66.1%
hit rate
0.218
Brier score
37 of 56 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Kings at ClippersLAC 86.5% pre-game — final LAC 109–SAC 118
- Mavericks at CavaliersCLE 86.5% pre-game — final CLE 120–DAL 130
- Spurs at PelicansSAS 82.0% pre-game — final NOP 136–SAS 131
- Bulls at WarriorsGSW 76.9% pre-game — final GSW 124–CHI 130
- Knicks at ClippersNYK 70.4% pre-game — final LAC 126–NYK 118
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Pistons at NetsDET 87.5% pre-game — final BKN 100–DET 138
- Knicks at PacersNYK 87.2% pre-game — final IND 92–NYK 101
- Hornets at KingsCHA 85.3% pre-game — final SAC 109–CHA 117
- Grizzlies at PistonsDET 83.7% pre-game — final DET 126–MEM 110
- 76ers at PistonsDET 81.5% pre-game — final DET 131–PHI 109
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magic at Bucks Mon, Mar 9 | MIL 35.4% · ORL 64.6% | MIL 91–ORL 130 | Hit |
| Rockets at Spurs Mon, Mar 9 | SAS 54.3% · HOU 45.8% | SAS 145–HOU 120 | Hit |
| Bulls at Kings Mon, Mar 9 | SAC 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | SAC 126–CHI 110 | Hit |
| Pacers at Trail Blazers Mon, Mar 9 | POR 56.3% · IND 43.7% | POR 131–IND 111 | Hit |
| Hornets at Suns Mon, Mar 9 | PHX 45.8% · CHA 54.2% | PHX 111–CHA 99 | Miss |
| 76ers at Cavaliers Mon, Mar 9 | CLE 73.0% · PHI 27.0% | CLE 115–PHI 101 | Hit |
| Grizzlies at Nets Mon, Mar 9 | BKN 38.7% · MEM 61.3% | BKN 126–MEM 115 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Thunder Mon, Mar 9 | OKC 75.9% · DEN 24.1% | OKC 129–DEN 126 | Hit |
| Warriors at Jazz Tue, Mar 10 | UTA 37.2% · GSW 62.8% | UTA 119–GSW 116 | Miss |
| Knicks at Clippers Tue, Mar 10 | LAC 29.6% · NYK 70.4% | LAC 126–NYK 118 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at 76ers Tue, Mar 10 | PHI 65.2% · MEM 34.8% | PHI 139–MEM 129 | Hit |
| Pistons at Nets Tue, Mar 10 | BKN 12.5% · DET 87.5% | BKN 100–DET 138 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Hawks Tue, Mar 10 | ATL 76.1% · DAL 23.9% | ATL 124–DAL 112 | Hit |
| Spurs at Lakers Tue, Mar 10 | LAL 30.3% · SAS 69.7% | LAL 150–SAS 129 | Miss |
| Celtics at Spurs Wed, Mar 11 | SAS 55.2% · BOS 44.8% | SAS 125–BOS 116 | Hit |
| Raptors at Rockets Wed, Mar 11 | HOU 67.6% · TOR 32.4% | HOU 113–TOR 99 | Hit |
| Suns at Bucks Wed, Mar 11 | MIL 31.7% · PHX 68.3% | MIL 114–PHX 129 | Hit |
| Bulls at Warriors Wed, Mar 11 | GSW 76.9% · CHI 23.1% | GSW 124–CHI 130 | Miss |
| Hornets at Trail Blazers Wed, Mar 11 | POR 32.2% · CHA 67.8% | POR 101–CHA 103 | Hit |
| Pacers at Kings Wed, Mar 11 | SAC 48.6% · IND 51.4% | SAC 114–IND 109 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Lakers Wed, Mar 11 | LAL 42.6% · MIN 57.4% | LAL 120–MIN 106 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Magic Wed, Mar 11 | ORL 44.6% · CLE 55.4% | ORL 128–CLE 122 | Miss |
| Raptors at Pelicans Thu, Mar 12 | NOP 35.8% · TOR 64.2% | NOP 122–TOR 111 | Miss |
| Knicks at Jazz Thu, Mar 12 | UTA 28.5% · NYK 71.5% | UTA 117–NYK 134 | Hit |
| Rockets at Nuggets Thu, Mar 12 | DEN 53.6% · HOU 46.4% | DEN 129–HOU 93 | Hit |
| Hornets at Kings Thu, Mar 12 | SAC 14.7% · CHA 85.3% | SAC 109–CHA 117 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Clippers Thu, Mar 12 | LAC 39.0% · MIN 61.0% | LAC 153–MIN 128 | Miss |
| Suns at Pacers Thu, Mar 12 | IND 25.9% · PHX 74.1% | IND 108–PHX 123 | Hit |
| Spurs at Pelicans Thu, Mar 12 | NOP 18.0% · SAS 82.0% | NOP 136–SAS 131 | Miss |
| 76ers at Pistons Thu, Mar 12 | DET 81.5% · PHI 18.5% | DET 131–PHI 109 | Hit |
| Nets at Hawks Thu, Mar 12 | ATL 77.2% · BKN 22.8% | ATL 108–BKN 97 | Hit |
| Bucks at Heat Thu, Mar 12 | MIA 77.4% · MIL 22.6% | MIA 112–MIL 105 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Grizzlies Fri, Mar 13 | MEM 65.4% · DAL 34.6% | MEM 112–DAL 120 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Spurs Fri, Mar 13 | SAS 70.0% · DEN 29.9% | SAS 131–DEN 136 | Miss |
| Celtics at Thunder Fri, Mar 13 | OKC 71.1% · BOS 28.9% | OKC 104–BOS 102 | Hit |
| Bulls at Lakers Fri, Mar 13 | LAL 77.7% · CHI 22.3% | LAL 142–CHI 130 | Hit |
| Knicks at Pacers Fri, Mar 13 | IND 12.8% · NYK 87.2% | IND 92–NYK 101 | Hit |
| Suns at Raptors Fri, Mar 13 | TOR 57.2% · PHX 42.8% | TOR 122–PHX 115 | Hit |
| Grizzlies at Pistons Fri, Mar 13 | DET 83.7% · MEM 16.3% | DET 126–MEM 110 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Mavericks Fri, Mar 13 | DAL 20.3% · CLE 79.7% | DAL 105–CLE 138 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Rockets Sat, Mar 14 | HOU 77.7% · NOP 22.3% | HOU 107–NOP 105 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Warriors Sat, Mar 14 | GSW 44.5% · MIN 55.5% | GSW 117–MIN 127 | Hit |
| Jazz at Trail Blazers Sat, Mar 14 | POR 71.5% · UTA 28.5% | POR 124–UTA 114 | Hit |
| Bulls at Clippers Sat, Mar 14 | LAC 69.1% · CHI 30.9% | LAC 119–CHI 108 | Hit |
| Nets at 76ers Sat, Mar 14 | PHI 78.6% · BKN 21.4% | PHI 104–BKN 97 | Hit |
| Bucks at Hawks Sat, Mar 14 | ATL 75.9% · MIL 24.1% | ATL 122–MIL 99 | Hit |
| Hornets at Spurs Sat, Mar 14 | SAS 71.3% · CHA 28.7% | SAS 115–CHA 102 | Hit |
| Wizards at Celtics Sat, Mar 14 | BOS 56.3% · WSH 43.7% | BOS 111–WSH 100 | Hit |
| Magic at Heat Sun, Mar 15 | MIA 67.1% · ORL 32.9% | MIA 117–ORL 121 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Lakers Sun, Mar 15 | LAL 43.9% · DEN 56.1% | LAL 127–DEN 125 | Miss |
| Kings at Clippers Sun, Mar 15 | LAC 86.5% · SAC 13.5% | LAC 109–SAC 118 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Thunder Sun, Mar 15 | OKC 79.2% · MIN 20.8% | OKC 116–MIN 103 | Hit |
| Pacers at Bucks Sun, Mar 15 | MIL 71.4% · IND 28.6% | MIL 134–IND 123 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Cavaliers Sun, Mar 15 | CLE 86.5% · DAL 13.6% | CLE 120–DAL 130 | Miss |
| Pistons at Raptors Sun, Mar 15 | TOR 30.3% · DET 69.7% | TOR 119–DET 108 | Miss |
| Trail Blazers at 76ers Sun, Mar 15 | PHI 64.4% · POR 35.6% | PHI 109–POR 103 | Hit |
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