Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder 71% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Thunder:
- Offensive Efficiency. Thunder offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Thunder are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Thunder (51-15) in better form than Celtics (43-22)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 55% (−16)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OKC 65% (−6)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 70% (−1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: OKC 66% (−5)
Win probability movement
OKC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Thunder defeated the Celtics 104-102.
Our model predicted the Thunder would win with 71% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a major factor: Thunder offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Thunder and was a notable factor: Thunder are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Celtics and was a contributing factor: Celtics defense (107.2 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (107.9 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Thunder won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Recent FormFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Thunder offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.5 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (107.2 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (107.9 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Thunder (51-15) in better form than Celtics (43-22)
Turnover Differential
Thunder turnover differential (+0) vs Celtics (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Celtics
Thunder
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Thunder has a 71% win probability, while Celtics has a 29% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.