How PlayDecoded Works
We show our work. Here's what goes into every number.
What We Actually Do
We gather everything that matters
Team stats, injury reports, rest days, head-to-head history. For outdoor sports, we pull weather forecasts. For basketball, we track back-to-backs and travel schedules. If it affects outcomes, we track it.
Each sport gets its own model
NFL and MLB care about weather. NBA doesn't. Basketball back-to-backs are brutal. Football bye weeks matter. We weight factors based on what actually predicts outcomes in that sport, not generic formulas.
You see the breakdown
Most sites give you a number. We tell you why. Home field is adding 3 points. The weather favors the run game. Their starting point guard is out. You can agree or disagree with our weighting—that's the point.
It updates in real-time
Injury report drops? We recalculate. Weather forecast changes? Updated. A surprise inactive 90 minutes before kickoff can swing a game. We catch it.
Sports We Cover
National Football League
32 teams
Game probabilities with home field, weather, and injury breakdowns
National Basketball Association
30 teams
Game probabilities factoring rest days, efficiency, and injuries
Major League Baseball
30 teams
Game probabilities with pitching matchups and weather factors
National Hockey League
32 teams
Game probabilities with goalie matchups and back-to-back tracking
Sport-Specific Factors
NFL Factors
- Home Field Advantage
- Weather Conditions
- Injury Report
- Offensive & Defensive Stats
- Recent Form
- Head-to-Head History
NBA Factors
- Home Court Advantage
- Rest Days (Back-to-Backs)
- Offensive Efficiency
- Defensive Efficiency
- Injury Report
- Recent Form
A Note on Uncertainty
We're not fortune tellers. A 70% probability means the other team wins 30% of the time— that's a lot. Upsets happen constantly; that's what makes sports fun to watch. Use this as one input, not the answer.