Explainers
Plain-language guides to how our numbers work: methodology, factors, and sport-specific effects.
Why the Model and the Market Disagree
Why a factor-based win probability can differ from the market's implied probability, what a disagreement does and doesn't tell you, and how to read it.
Read articleStarting Pitchers, Weather and MLB Win Probability
How much one starting pitcher and the weather change a baseball team’s chance to win, and how PlayDecoded reflects both in its numbers.
Read articleNHL Back-to-Backs and Goalies: How Rest Changes Win Probability
Why NHL teams rarely start a goalie on back-to-back nights, how much a backup or tired team changes the chance to win, and how PlayDecoded weighs rest.
Read articleHow to Read a Win Probability Factor Breakdown
What drives a pregame win probability: team strength, home advantage, rest, injuries and weather. Learn to read each factor card and see why the number moved.
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