Oct 26
Scheduled
Hornets
Charlotte
40%
vs
Wizards
Washington
60%
Slight Lean
Mon, Oct 26, 7:00 PM ET
CHA vs WSHbreakdown →
See why the model favors a side
Real-time breakdown of every game — injuries, form, travel, weather. See exactly where the model disagrees with the market.
Every call is graded after the game. See our win-call accuracy
Upset Radar
The market has these teams as underdogs. The model gives them a clearly better chance to win.
NBA
MIN at CLE
Model favors MIN
MIN win chance
76%model39%market
37-point disagreement
ModelMarket (no vig)
NBA
DAL at MIA
Model favors DAL
DAL win chance
58%model27%market
31-point disagreement
ModelMarket (no vig)
NFL
LAC at LAR
Model favors LAC
LAC win chance
57%model26%market
31-point disagreement
ModelMarket (no vig)
Top Signals Today
Where our model and the market are furthest apart. Updated with every market update.
Today's Board
Starting Soon
Next games starting soonest
Oct 26
Scheduled
Cavaliers
Cleveland
24%
vs
Timberwolves
Minnesota
76%
High Confidence
Mon, Oct 26, 7:00 PM ET
CLE vs MINbreakdown →
Oct 26
Scheduled
Rangers
New York
51%
vs
Kings
Los Angeles
49%
Mon, Oct 26, 7:00 PM ET
NYR vs LAKbreakdown →
Oct 26
Scheduled
Heat
Miami
42%
vs
Mavericks
Dallas
58%
Slight Lean
Mon, Oct 26, 7:30 PM ET
MIA vs DALbreakdown →
High Confidence
Model gives one team 65%+ win probability
Oct 28
Scheduled
Timberwolves
Minnesota
94%
High Confidence
vs
Warriors
Golden State
6%
Wed, Oct 28, 8:00 PM ET
MIN vs GSWbreakdown →
Oct 30
Scheduled
Timberwolves
Minnesota
94%
High Confidence
vs
Clippers
LA
6%
Fri, Oct 30, 8:00 PM ET
MIN vs LACbreakdown →
Oct 31
Scheduled
Grizzlies
Memphis
93%
High Confidence
vs
Kings
Sacramento
7%
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET
MEM vs SACbreakdown →
Oct 30
Scheduled
Mavericks
Dallas
7%
vs
Rockets
Houston
93%
High Confidence
Fri, Oct 30, 8:00 PM ET
DAL vs HOUbreakdown →
Closest Matchups
Toss-ups: model sees it as nearly even
Oct 29
Scheduled
Stars
Dallas
50%
vs
Canadiens
Montreal
50%
Thu, Oct 29, 8:00 PM ET
DAL vs MTLbreakdown →
Oct 28
Scheduled
Oilers
Edmonton
49%
vs
Flames
Calgary
51%
Wed, Oct 28, 8:30 PM ET
EDM vs CGYbreakdown →
Oct 29
Scheduled
Hurricanes
Carolina
49%
vs
Blue Jackets
Columbus
51%
Thu, Oct 29, 7:00 PM ET
CAR vs CBJbreakdown →
Oct 29
Scheduled
Red Wings
Detroit
49%
vs
Blackhawks
Chicago
51%
Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET
DET vs CHIbreakdown →
The weekly slate, and what we got wrong
Every Monday: the week's biggest games with our win probabilities, plus a plain review of last week's misses. One email a week, no tips.
Probabilities are information, not betting advice.
Here's What You Get
Every game breaks down the factors driving the probability
NFL
Eagles
44%
vs
Cowboys
56%
44%56%
Home AdvantageFavors Home
Injury ImpactHigh Impact
Recent FormModerate
We Show Our Work
1
Track Everything
Injuries, weather, rest days, and head-to-head history. If it affects outcomes, we measure it.
2
Weight What Matters
Each sport gets its own model. Weather matters for NFL, back-to-backs matter for NBA.
3
Show the Why
You see which factors are moving the market, not just a number