...
Live
Padres
San Diego
52%
vs
Brewers
Milwaukee
48%
SD vs MILbreakdown →
See why the model favors a side
Real-time breakdown of every game — injuries, form, travel, weather. See exactly where the model disagrees with the market.
Every pick is graded after the game. See our outright pick accuracy
Upset Radar
The market has these teams as underdogs. The model gives them a clearly better chance to win.
NFLSun, Oct 11 at 5:00 PM
HOU at TEN
Model favors TEN
TEN win chance
53%model23%market
30-point disagreement
ModelMarket (no vig)
NFLSun, Oct 11 at 8:25 PM
DET at ARI
Model favors ARI
ARI win chance
54%model31%market
23-point disagreement
ModelMarket (no vig)
NFLFri, Oct 9 at 12:15 AM
TB at DAL
Model favors TB
TB win chance
40%model21%market
19-point disagreement
ModelMarket (no vig)
Top Signals Today
Where our model and the market are furthest apart. Updated with every odds refresh.
Today's Board
Starting Soon
Next games starting soonest
...
Scheduled
Chicago White Sox
Chicago
61%
Slight Lean
vs
Guardians
Cleveland
39%
CWS vs CLEbreakdown →
...
Scheduled
Cavaliers
Cleveland
51%
vs
Celtics
Boston
49%
CLE vs BOSbreakdown →
...
Scheduled
Senators
Ottawa
53%
vs
Flyers
Philadelphia
47%
OTT vs PHIbreakdown →
...
Scheduled
Canadiens
Montreal
49%
vs
Predators
Nashville
51%
MTL vs NSHbreakdown →
High Confidence
Model gives one team 65%+ win probability
...
Scheduled
Warriors
Golden State
89%
High Confidence
vs
Kings
Sacramento
11%
GSW vs SACbreakdown →
...
Scheduled
Nets
Brooklyn
86%
High Confidence
vs
76ers
Philadelphia
14%
BKN vs PHIbreakdown →
...
Scheduled
Lakers
Los Angeles
85%
High Confidence
vs
Kings
Sacramento
15%
LAL vs SACbreakdown →
...
Scheduled
Heat
Miami
81%
High Confidence
vs
Pelicans
New Orleans
19%
MIA vs NOPbreakdown →
Closest Matchups
Toss-ups: model sees it as nearly even
...
Scheduled
Blackhawks
Chicago
50%
vs
Hurricanes
Carolina
50%
CHI vs CARbreakdown →
...
Scheduled
Islanders
New York
50%
vs
Lightning
Tampa Bay
50%
NYI vs TBLbreakdown →
...
Scheduled
Guardians
Cleveland
50%
vs
Chicago White Sox
Chicago
50%
CLE vs CWSbreakdown →
...
Scheduled
Wizards
Washington
50%
vs
Pistons
Detroit
51%
WSH vs DETbreakdown →
The weekly slate, and what we got wrong
Every Monday: the week's biggest games with our win probabilities, plus a plain review of last week's misses. One email a week, no tips.
Probabilities are information, not betting advice. Responsible gambling
Here's What You Get
Every game breaks down the factors driving the probability
NFL
Cowboys
60%
vs
Buccaneers
40%
60%40%
Home AdvantageFavors Home
Injury ImpactHigh Impact
Recent FormModerate
We Show Our Work
1
Track Everything
Injuries, weather, rest days, and head-to-head history. If it affects outcomes, we measure it.
2
Weight What Matters
Each sport gets its own model. Weather matters for NFL, back-to-backs matter for NBA.
3
Show the Why
You see which factors are pushing the odds, not just a number