Week 5
Scheduled
Rams
Los Angeles
55%
vs
Bills
Buffalo
45%
LAR vs BUFbreakdown →
NFLAFC • East
Buffalo Bills
AFC Conference • East Division
Record
3-1
Division
East
Conference
AFC
Upcoming
2 games
Next Game Prediction
at Los Angeles Rams • Tue, Oct 13 12:15 AM
45%
win probability
Model accuracy on Buffalo Bills: 50% (2 games)
Team Analytics
Elo Rating History
Buffalo Bills - 2026 Season
163316231613
Current Elo
1631
Season Change
+16
Season High
1631
Season Low
1615
Avg Change
+18.3
Games
1
Model vs. Market History
Buffalo Bills - 2026 Season
Avg Edge
-5%
Model Edge Record
0-1
Model Edge Win %
0%
| Date | Opponent | H/A | Model | Market | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | Raiders | A | 56% | 67% | -11% | Scheduled |
| Oct 13 | Rams | A | 45% | 41% | +5% | Scheduled |
| Oct 4 | Patriots | H | 71% | 59% | +12%★ | LOSS✗ |
| Sep 27 | Chargers | H | 74% | 97% | -24% | WIN✓ |
Model divergence: our model gives this team >5% more probability than the market implies
Upcoming Games
View all Billsupcoming games →
Recent Games
View all Billsrecent games →
Frequently Asked Questions
The Buffalo Bills play in the AFC conference, East division.
The Bills play their home games in Buffalo.
We analyze Bills games using multiple factors including weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, injury reports, and historical performance to calculate win probabilities.
How We Analyze NFL Games
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Guide
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
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Deep Dive
Home Field Advantage
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Deep Dive
NFL Weather Impact
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