Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings head-to-head
Minnesota Vikings 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Vikings:
- Home Field Advantage. Vikings are 2-0 at home this season; Bills are 3-0 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 51% (−3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MIN 55% (+1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bills at Vikings
The Bills visit the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN in NFL regular season Week 9 action.
Our model gives the Vikings a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Bills to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Vikings (medium): Vikings are 2-0 at home this season; Bills are 3-0 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Bills (low): Vikings ELO 1602 vs Bills ELO 1631 (diff: -30)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Vikings turnover differential (+0) vs Bills (+0)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Vikings
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Bills
Vikings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Minnesota Vikings
Buffalo Bills
- Previous game65%BUF win probability
- Next game56%BUF win probability
Other Week 9 games
- 59%JAX win probability
- 53%CIN win probability
- 64%KC win probability
- 62%PHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Vikings has a 54% win probability, while Bills has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.