Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets head-to-head
Buffalo Bills 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bills:
- ELO Rating. Jets ELO 1403 vs Bills ELO 1631 (diff: -228)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: BUF 48% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BUF 57% (+1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bills at Jets
The Bills visit the Jets at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ in NFL regular season Week 10 action.
Our model gives the Bills a 56% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Jets to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Bills (medium): Jets ELO 1403 vs Bills ELO 1631 (diff: -228)
- Home Field Advantage is neutral: Jets are 1-1 at home this season; Bills are 3-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Jets turnover differential (+0) vs Bills (+0)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Bills
Jets
No player data available
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
New York Jets
- Previous game52%NYJ win probability
- Next game57%LAC win probability
Buffalo Bills
- Previous game65%BUF win probability
- Next game65%BUF win probability
Other Week 10 games
- 57%NYG win probability
- 58%DET win probability
- 55%KC win probability
- 53%CLE win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Jets has a 44% win probability, while Bills has a 56% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.