Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins head-to-head
Buffalo Bills 65% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bills:
- ELO Rating. Bills ELO 1631 vs Dolphins ELO 1408 (diff: +223)
- Home Field Advantage. Bills are 2-1 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: BUF 58% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BUF 60% (−5)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Dolphins at Bills
The Dolphins visit the Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY in NFL regular season Week 11 action.
Our model gives the Bills a 65% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Dolphins to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Bills (medium): Bills ELO 1631 vs Dolphins ELO 1408 (diff: +223)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bills (medium): Bills are 2-1 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency is neutral: Offensive efficiency stats not yet available
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Buffalo Bills
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Dolphins
Bills
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game54%MIA win probability
Other Week 11 games
- 57%HOU win probability
- 60%DAL win probability
- 51%NYG win probability
- 62%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bills has a 65% win probability, while Dolphins has a 35% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY.