Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs head-to-head
Buffalo Bills 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bills:
- ELO Rating. Bills ELO 1631 vs Chiefs ELO 1534 (diff: +97)
- Home Field Advantage. Bills are 2-1 at home this season; Chiefs are 2-0 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: BUF 53% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BUF 55% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Chiefs at Bills
The Chiefs visit the Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY in NFL regular season Week 12 action.
Our model gives the Bills a 57% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Chiefs to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Bills (low): Bills ELO 1631 vs Chiefs ELO 1534 (diff: +97)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bills (low): Bills are 2-1 at home this season; Chiefs are 2-0 on the road
- Defensive Efficiency is neutral: Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Buffalo Bills
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Chiefs
Bills
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs
Other Week 12 games
- 54%LAR win probability
- 57%DET win probability
- 50%PHI win probability
- 56%PIT win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bills has a 57% win probability, while Chiefs has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY.