Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots head-to-head
New England Patriots 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Patriots:
- Home Field Advantage. Patriots are 3-0 at home this season; Bills are 3-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NE 50% (−3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: NE 55% (+2)
Win probability movement
NE home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bills at Patriots
The Bills visit the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA in NFL regular season Week 13 action.
Our model gives the Patriots a 53% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Bills to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Patriots (low): Patriots are 3-0 at home this season; Bills are 3-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favors the Bills (low): Patriots ELO 1585 vs Bills ELO 1631 (diff: -46)
- Weather Impact is neutral: Weather data not available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New England Patriots
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Bills
Patriots
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
Other Week 13 games
- 52%LAR win probability
- 52%CLE win probability
- 51%DET win probability
- 54%TB win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Patriots has a 53% win probability, while Bills has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.