New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bears:
- Home Field Advantage. Bears are 2-1 at home this season; Patriots are 1-2 on the road
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Patriots at Bears
The Patriots visit the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL in NFL regular season Week 7 action.
Our model gives the Bears a 55% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. The Patriots will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bears (medium): Bears are 2-1 at home this season; Patriots are 1-2 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Patriots (low): Bears ELO 1531 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -54)
- Head to Head is neutral: No recent head-to-head history available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bears
- ELO RatingFavors New England Patriots
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
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Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Patriots
Bears
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bears has a 55% win probability, while Patriots has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL.