NFL week 7 report card (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
100.0%
hit rate
0.198
Brier score
1 of 1 decided
Season to date
54.1%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
33 of 61 decided · 1 tie
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Patriots at BearsCHI 55.5% pre-kickoff — final CHI 30–NE 24
| Game | Pre-kickoff | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Bears Fri, Oct 23 | CHI 55.5% · NE 44.5% | CHI 30–NE 24 | Hit |
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