NFL Analysis

The NFL model scores ten factors for every game: Elo rating, each team's home and road record this season, offensive and defensive efficiency (yards per play gained and allowed), turnover differential, recent form, head-to-head history, rest days, injuries weighted by position (a starting quarterback counts most), and weather at open-air stadiums. Every game is re-scored each morning, then every 15 minutes in the three hours before kickoff as injury reports change. Each game page shows the factor breakdown, and the methodology page explains the full method. Every pick is graded after the game: outright accuracy by season is on the accuracy page, and the glossary explains how outright, ATS and Brier differ.