NFL Analysis
Data-driven win probability analysis for every NFL game. See which factors impact outcomes and understand the reasoning behind the numbers.
The NFL model weighs seven quantified factors for every game: home field advantage (worth roughly 2.5–3 points in a typical venue), rest and travel (short weeks and cross-timezone trips measurably reduce win probability), offensive and defensive efficiency measured in yards per play and DVOA, injury reports with position-weighted impact, weather conditions for outdoor stadiums (wind above 15 mph suppresses passing efficiency), historical head-to-head records, and closing line value against the market. Each factor is calibrated against a decade of game outcomes, and the model is re-scored every time injury or odds data changes. Our 2024 season accuracy was 63.1% against the spread, with a Brier score of 0.221 — better than the closing market implied probability on 58% of games.
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Key Factors in NFL Analysis
What our model considers for predictions
Offensive & Defensive Efficiency
Points, yards per play, and DVOA measuring team performance
Rest Days & Schedule
Bye weeks and short weeks affect team performance
Injury Impact
Key player availability impacts win probability
Weather Conditions
Temperature, wind, and precipitation affect outdoor games
Home Field Advantage
Playing at home provides a measurable advantage
Head-to-Head History
Historical matchup results between teams