New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots head-to-head
New England Patriots 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Patriots:
- ELO Rating. Chargers ELO 1478 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -107)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: NE 46% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NE 52% (+2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Patriots at Chargers
The Patriots visit the Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA in NFL regular season Week 12 action.
Our model gives the Patriots a 50% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Chargers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Patriots (low): Chargers ELO 1478 vs Patriots ELO 1585 (diff: -107)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Chargers (low): Chargers are 0-3 at home this season; Patriots are 1-3 on the road
- Injuries is neutral: Similar injury situations: Chargers (0 out) vs Patriots (0 out)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors New England Patriots
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Los Angeles Chargers
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Patriots
Chargers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Los Angeles Chargers
New England Patriots
Other Week 12 games
- 54%LAR win probability
- 57%DET win probability
- 50%PHI win probability
- 57%BUF win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Chargers has a 50% win probability, while Patriots has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA.