Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers head-to-head
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Buccaneers:
- Home Field Advantage. Buccaneers are 0-4 at home this season; Chargers are 0-3 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TB 51% (−3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: TB 55% (+1)
Win probability movement
TB home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Chargers at Buccaneers
The Chargers visit the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL in NFL regular season Week 13 action.
Our model gives the Buccaneers a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Chargers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Buccaneers (medium): Buccaneers are 0-4 at home this season; Chargers are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Chargers (low): Buccaneers ELO 1442 vs Chargers ELO 1478 (diff: -36)
- Weather Impact is neutral: Weather data not available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- ELO RatingFavors Los Angeles Chargers
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Chargers
Buccaneers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers
Other Week 13 games
- 52%LAR win probability
- 52%CLE win probability
- 51%DET win probability
- 55%CHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Buccaneers has a 54% win probability, while Chargers has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.