Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears vs Jacksonville Jaguars head-to-head
Chicago Bears 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bears:
- Home Field Advantage. Bears are 3-1 at home this season; Jaguars are 1-1 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHI 50% (−5)
- If the rating edge were neutral: CHI 57% (+2)
Win probability movement
CHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Jaguars at Bears
The Jaguars visit the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL in NFL regular season Week 13 action.
Our model gives the Bears a 55% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Jaguars to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bears (medium): Bears are 3-1 at home this season; Jaguars are 1-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Jaguars (low): Bears ELO 1531 vs Jaguars ELO 1568 (diff: -38)
- Offensive Efficiency is neutral: Offensive efficiency stats not yet available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bears
- ELO RatingFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Jaguars
Bears
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Chicago Bears
- Previous game55%CHI win probability
- Next game53%CHI win probability
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game59%JAX win probability
Other Week 13 games
- 52%LAR win probability
- 52%CLE win probability
- 51%DET win probability
- 54%TB win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bears has a 55% win probability, while Jaguars has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL.