Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers head-to-head
Jacksonville Jaguars 59% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Jaguars:
- Home Field Advantage. Jaguars are 3-1 at home this season; Steelers are 1-2 on the road
- ELO Rating. Jaguars ELO 1568 vs Steelers ELO 1517 (diff: +52)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: JAX 54% (−5)
- If the rating edge were neutral: JAX 58% (−1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Steelers at Jaguars
The Steelers visit the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL in NFL regular season Week 14 action.
Our model gives the Jaguars a 59% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Steelers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Jaguars (medium): Jaguars are 3-1 at home this season; Steelers are 1-2 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Jaguars (low): Jaguars ELO 1568 vs Steelers ELO 1517 (diff: +52)
- Injuries is neutral: Similar injury situations: Jaguars (0 out) vs Steelers (0 out)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- ELO RatingFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Steelers
Jaguars
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game51%HOU win probability
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Previous game67%TB win probability
- Next game55%PIT win probability
Other Week 14 games
- 55%NE win probability
- 59%BAL win probability
- 57%CLE win probability
- 67%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Jaguars has a 59% win probability, while Steelers has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL.