Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars head-to-head
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: HOU 52% (+1)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 51% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Jaguars at Texans
The Jaguars visit the Texans at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX in NFL regular season Week 15 action.
Our model gives the Texans a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Jaguars to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Jaguars (low): Texans ELO 1541 vs Jaguars ELO 1568 (diff: -28)
- Home Field Advantage is neutral: Texans are 0-3 at home this season; Jaguars are 1-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency is neutral: Offensive efficiency stats not yet available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Jaguars
Texans
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Houston Texans
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game55%PHI win probability
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game50%DAL win probability
Other Week 15 games
- 55%SF win probability
- 52%PHI win probability
- 59%BUF win probability
- 55%WSH win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Texans has a 51% win probability, while Jaguars has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX.