Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars head-to-head
Dallas Cowboys 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Cowboys:
- Home Field Advantage. Cowboys are 1-2 at home this season; Jaguars are 1-1 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: DAL 54% (+4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DAL 48% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Jaguars at Cowboys
The Jaguars visit the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX in NFL regular season Week 16 action.
Our model gives the Cowboys a 50% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Jaguars to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Jaguars (low): Cowboys ELO 1460 vs Jaguars ELO 1568 (diff: -109)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Cowboys (low): Cowboys are 1-2 at home this season; Jaguars are 1-1 on the road
- Head to Head is neutral: No recent head-to-head history available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Cowboys
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Jaguars
Cowboys
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Dallas Cowboys
- Previous game51%DAL win probability
- Next game58%DAL win probability
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game64%JAX win probability
Other Week 16 games
- 55%PHI win probability
- 55%CHI win probability
- 54%DEN win probability
- 59%SEA win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Cowboys has a 50% win probability, while Jaguars has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.