Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos head-to-head
Denver Broncos 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Broncos:
- Home Field Advantage. Broncos are 3-0 at home this season; Bills are 3-0 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DEN 51% (−3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DEN 55% (+1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bills at Broncos
The Bills visit the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO in NFL regular season Week 16 action.
Our model gives the Broncos a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Bills to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Broncos (medium): Broncos are 3-0 at home this season; Bills are 3-0 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Bills (low): Broncos ELO 1598 vs Bills ELO 1631 (diff: -34)
- Recent Form is neutral: Insufficient games for recent form analysis
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Broncos
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Bills
Broncos
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Denver Broncos
- Previous game60%DEN win probability
- Next game58%NE win probability
Buffalo Bills
- Previous game65%BUF win probability
- Next game58%BUF win probability
Other Week 16 games
- 55%PHI win probability
- 55%CHI win probability
- 59%SEA win probability
- 51%ATL win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Broncos has a 54% win probability, while Bills has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO.