Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins head-to-head
Buffalo Bills 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bills:
- ELO Rating. Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Bills ELO 1631 (diff: -223)
- Home Field Advantage. Dolphins are 0-2 at home this season; Bills are 3-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: BUF 50% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BUF 56% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bills at Dolphins
The Bills visit the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL in NFL regular season Week 17 action.
Our model gives the Bills a 58% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Dolphins to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Bills (medium): Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Bills ELO 1631 (diff: -223)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bills (low): Dolphins are 0-2 at home this season; Bills are 3-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form is neutral: Insufficient games for recent form analysis
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Buffalo Bills
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Bills
Dolphins
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Miami Dolphins
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game65%NE win probability
Buffalo Bills
- Previous game65%BUF win probability
- Next game65%BUF win probability
Other Week 17 games
- 53%CIN win probability
- 52%KC win probability
- 52%LAR win probability
- 58%NE win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Dolphins has a 42% win probability, while Bills has a 58% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.