Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots head-to-head
New England Patriots 65% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Patriots:
- Home Field Advantage. Patriots are 3-0 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating. Patriots ELO 1585 vs Dolphins ELO 1408 (diff: +177)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NE 58% (−7)
- If the rating edge were neutral: NE 59% (−6)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Dolphins at Patriots
The Dolphins visit the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA in NFL regular season Week 18 action.
Our model gives the Patriots a 65% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Dolphins to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Patriots (high): Patriots are 3-0 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favors the Patriots (medium): Patriots ELO 1585 vs Dolphins ELO 1408 (diff: +177)
- Weather Impact is neutral: Weather data not available
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New England Patriots
- ELO RatingFavors New England Patriots
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Patriots are 3-0 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Dolphins
Patriots
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
New England Patriots
- Previous game55%CHI win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Miami Dolphins
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Other Week 18 games
- 53%NO win probability
- 55%CAR win probability
- 57%SF win probability
- 60%KC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Patriots has a 65% win probability, while Dolphins has a 35% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.