Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders head-to-head
Kansas City Chiefs 60% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Chiefs:
- ELO Rating. Chiefs ELO 1534 vs Raiders ELO 1415 (diff: +119)
- Home Field Advantage. Chiefs are 3-0 at home this season; Raiders are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: KC 56% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: KC 56% (−4)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Raiders at Chiefs
The Raiders visit the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO in NFL regular season Week 18 action.
Our model gives the Chiefs a 60% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Raiders to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Chiefs (low): Chiefs ELO 1534 vs Raiders ELO 1415 (diff: +119)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Chiefs (medium): Chiefs are 3-0 at home this season; Raiders are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Chiefs turnover differential (+0) vs Raiders (+0)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Kansas City Chiefs
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Raiders
Chiefs
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Previous game57%KC win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Las Vegas Raiders
- Previous game65%BUF win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Other Week 18 games
- 53%NO win probability
- 55%CAR win probability
- 57%SF win probability
- 65%BUF win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Chiefs has a 60% win probability, while Raiders has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO.