New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets head-to-head
Buffalo Bills 65% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bills:
- ELO Rating. Bills ELO 1631 vs Jets ELO 1403 (diff: +228)
- Home Field Advantage. Bills are 2-1 at home this season; Jets are 1-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: BUF 56% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BUF 60% (−5)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Jets at Bills
The Jets visit the Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY in NFL regular season Week 18 action.
Our model gives the Bills a 65% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Jets to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Bills (medium): Bills ELO 1631 vs Jets ELO 1403 (diff: +228)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bills (medium): Bills are 2-1 at home this season; Jets are 1-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Bills turnover differential (+0) vs Jets (+0)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Buffalo Bills
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Jets
No player data available
Bills
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Buffalo Bills
- Previous game65%BUF win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
New York Jets
- Previous game52%NYJ win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Other Week 18 games
- 53%NO win probability
- 55%CAR win probability
- 57%SF win probability
- 60%KC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bills has a 65% win probability, while Jets has a 35% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY.