Weather Impact on NFL Games

Weather Changes Football

Remember the Bills-Colts snow game in 2017? LeSean McCoy ran for 156 yards in a blizzard. That game wasn't decided by passing—it couldn't be. Weather doesn't just make games harder to watch; it shifts which teams have the edge.

We track conditions for every outdoor game and adjust probabilities accordingly. A pass-heavy team facing 20 mph winds isn't the same team that lit up a dome the week before.

What Actually Matters

Wind Is the Big One

Once sustained winds hit 15 mph, things get interesting. At 20+, the passing game takes a real hit—completion percentages drop, deep balls become coin flips, and kickers start missing from distances they normally nail.

Patrick Mahomes throwing in 25 mph wind at Arrowhead is a different proposition than Patrick Mahomes in a dome. We account for that.

Cold Makes the Ball Different

Below freezing, the ball gets harder. Catches that stick in September bounce off hands in December. Fumble rates tick up. This matters more for teams that aren't used to it—the Dolphins in January at Buffalo is a real disadvantage.

Rain and Snow Get Weird

Wet conditions favor running games. The ball is slippery, cuts don't stick on wet turf, and timing routes get harder to execute. Snow games can turn into whoever-has- the-better-running-back contests. We've seen this play out over and over.

The 2013 Eagles-Lions snow game saw 54 combined rushing attempts in the 4th quarter alone. Weather forces teams to adapt.

Dome Teams vs. The Elements

Teams that play in climate-controlled stadiums don't practice in bad weather. When the Falcons or Cardinals travel to Lambeau in December, they're at a real disadvantage beyond just home field. The Packers practice outside in that cold. Atlanta practices in a 72-degree building.

We weight this. A dome team traveling to a bad-weather game gets a tougher adjustment than a cold-weather team doing the same.

What We Actually Do

For every outdoor game, we pull the forecast for game time at that stadium. Then we look at how each team has historically performed in similar conditions and whether their playing style is weather-sensitive.

A team that runs the ball 45% of the time doesn't care about wind as much as a team that airs it out 60% of plays. We factor in offensive tendencies.

Dome Games

Nine NFL teams play in domes or stadiums with retractable roofs. For those games, weather isn't a factor and we remove it from our model entirely. Simple.