Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers head-to-head
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: ATL 52% (+1)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ATL 51% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Buccaneers at Falcons
The Buccaneers visit the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA in NFL regular season Week 16 action.
Our model gives the Falcons a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Buccaneers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Buccaneers (low): Falcons ELO 1417 vs Buccaneers ELO 1442 (diff: -26)
- Home Field Advantage is neutral: Falcons are 0-3 at home this season; Buccaneers are 1-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency is neutral: Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Buccaneers
Falcons
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Atlanta Falcons
- Previous game53%CHI win probability
- Next game50%NO win probability
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Other Week 16 games
- 55%PHI win probability
- 55%CHI win probability
- 54%DEN win probability
- 59%SEA win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Falcons has a 51% win probability, while Buccaneers has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.