New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints head-to-head
New Orleans Saints 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Saints:
- ELO Rating. Falcons ELO 1417 vs Saints ELO 1461 (diff: -44)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: NO 48% (−2)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NO 50% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Saints at Falcons
The Saints visit the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA in NFL regular season Week 17 action.
Our model gives the Saints a 50% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Falcons to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Saints (low): Falcons ELO 1417 vs Saints ELO 1461 (diff: -44)
- Home Field Advantage is neutral: Falcons are 0-3 at home this season; Saints are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Falcons turnover differential (+0) vs Saints (+0)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors New Orleans Saints
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Saints
Falcons
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Atlanta Falcons
- Previous game53%CHI win probability
- Next game55%CAR win probability
New Orleans Saints
Other Week 17 games
- 53%CIN win probability
- 52%KC win probability
- 52%LAR win probability
- 58%NE win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Falcons has a 50% win probability, while Saints has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.