Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers head-to-head
Chicago Bears 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bears:
- Home Field Advantage. Bears are 3-1 at home this season; Packers are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHI 52% (−3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: CHI 55% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Packers at Bears
The Packers visit the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL in NFL regular season Week 16 action.
Our model gives the Bears a 55% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Packers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bears (low): Bears are 3-1 at home this season; Packers are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating is neutral: Bears ELO 1531 vs Packers ELO 1529 (diff: +2)
- Offensive Efficiency is neutral: Offensive efficiency stats not yet available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bears
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Packers
Bears
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Chicago Bears
- Previous game55%CHI win probability
- Next game56%CHI win probability
Green Bay Packers
Other Week 16 games
- 55%PHI win probability
- 54%DEN win probability
- 59%SEA win probability
- 51%ATL win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bears has a 55% win probability, while Packers has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL.