Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions head-to-head
Chicago Bears 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bears:
- Home Field Advantage. Bears are 3-1 at home this season; Lions are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHI 51% (−5)
- If the rating edge were neutral: CHI 56% (0)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Lions at Bears
The Lions visit the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL in NFL regular season Week 17 action.
Our model gives the Bears a 56% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Lions to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bears (medium): Bears are 3-1 at home this season; Lions are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating is neutral: Bears ELO 1531 vs Lions ELO 1544 (diff: -13)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Bears turnover differential (+0) vs Lions (+0)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bears
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Lions
Bears
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
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NFL Weather Impact
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Chicago Bears
- Previous game55%CHI win probability
- Next game59%MIN win probability
Detroit Lions
- Previous game51%DET win probability
- Next game55%GB win probability
Other Week 17 games
- 53%CIN win probability
- 52%KC win probability
- 52%LAR win probability
- 58%NE win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bears has a 56% win probability, while Lions has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL.