Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings head-to-head
Minnesota Vikings 59% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Vikings:
- Home Field Advantage. Vikings are 2-0 at home this season; Bears are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating. Vikings ELO 1602 vs Bears ELO 1531 (diff: +71)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 55% (−4)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MIN 56% (−3)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bears at Vikings
The Bears visit the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN in NFL regular season Week 18 action.
Our model gives the Vikings a 59% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Bears to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Vikings (medium): Vikings are 2-0 at home this season; Bears are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favors the Vikings (low): Vikings ELO 1602 vs Bears ELO 1531 (diff: +71)
- Weather Impact is neutral: Weather data not available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Vikings
- ELO RatingFavors Minnesota Vikings
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Bears
Vikings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Minnesota Vikings
- Previous game51%MIN win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Chicago Bears
- Previous game55%CHI win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Other Week 18 games
- 53%NO win probability
- 55%CAR win probability
- 57%SF win probability
- 60%KC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Vikings has a 59% win probability, while Bears has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.