Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers head-to-head
Green Bay Packers 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Packers:
- Home Field Advantage. Packers are 2-1 at home this season; Lions are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: GB 51% (−4)
- If the rating edge were neutral: GB 56% (+1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Lions at Packers
The Lions visit the Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI in NFL regular season Week 18 action.
Our model gives the Packers a 55% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Lions to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Packers (medium): Packers are 2-1 at home this season; Lions are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating is neutral: Packers ELO 1529 vs Lions ELO 1544 (diff: -15)
- Defensive Efficiency is neutral: Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Green Bay Packers
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Lions
Packers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Green Bay Packers
- Previous game51%DAL win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Detroit Lions
- Previous game51%DET win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Other Week 18 games
- 53%NO win probability
- 55%CAR win probability
- 57%SF win probability
- 60%KC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Packers has a 55% win probability, while Lions has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI.