Washington Commanders at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Washington Commanders head-to-head
Jacksonville Jaguars 64% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Jaguars:
- Home Field Advantage. Jaguars are 3-1 at home this season; Commanders are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating. Jaguars ELO 1568 vs Commanders ELO 1424 (diff: +144)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: JAX 57% (−7)
- If the rating edge were neutral: JAX 59% (−5)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Commanders at Jaguars
The Commanders visit the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL in NFL regular season Week 17 action.
Our model gives the Jaguars a 64% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Commanders to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Jaguars (high): Jaguars are 3-1 at home this season; Commanders are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Jaguars (medium): Jaguars ELO 1568 vs Commanders ELO 1424 (diff: +144)
- Injuries is neutral: Similar injury situations: Jaguars (0 out) vs Commanders (0 out)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- ELO RatingFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Jaguars are 3-1 at home this season; Commanders are 0-3 on the road
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Commanders
Jaguars
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game51%JAX win probability
Washington Commanders
- Previous game58%SF win probability
- Next game54%WSH win probability
Other Week 17 games
- 53%CIN win probability
- 52%KC win probability
- 52%LAR win probability
- 58%NE win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Jaguars has a 64% win probability, while Commanders has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL.