Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders head-to-head
Washington Commanders 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Commanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Commanders are 1-1 at home this season; Cowboys are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WSH 51% (−3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: WSH 55% (+1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Cowboys at Commanders
The Cowboys visit the Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD in NFL regular season Week 18 action.
Our model gives the Commanders a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Cowboys to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Commanders (medium): Commanders are 1-1 at home this season; Cowboys are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favors the Cowboys (low): Commanders ELO 1424 vs Cowboys ELO 1460 (diff: -35)
- Offensive Efficiency is neutral: Offensive efficiency stats not yet available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Commanders
- ELO RatingFavors Dallas Cowboys
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Cowboys
Commanders
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Washington Commanders
- Previous game58%SF win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Dallas Cowboys
- Previous game51%DAL win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Other Week 18 games
- 53%NO win probability
- 55%CAR win probability
- 57%SF win probability
- 60%KC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Commanders has a 54% win probability, while Cowboys has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD.