NFL2026 season
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders
Head-to-head win probability for NFL. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
DAL
Dallas Cowboys
37
vs
WSH
Washington Commanders
20
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
—
No decided games this season
Meetings graded
0
2026
Correct calls
0
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Dallas Cowboys
- Home Field Advantage — Cowboys are 1-2 at home this season; Cardinals are 2-2 on the road
- Injuries — Cowboys less affected by injuries: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Cardinals 4 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Cardinals players matter more
- ELO Rating — Cowboys ELO 1460 vs Cardinals ELO 1412 (diff: +47)
Washington Commanders
- Injuries — Commanders healthier: 3 out, 1 doubtful vs Eagles 8 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage — Commanders are 1-1 at home this season; Eagles are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Rest Days — Commanders has rest advantage (13 days) over Eagles (14 days)
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