Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars head-to-head
Jacksonville Jaguars 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Jaguars:
- ELO Rating. Colts ELO 1431 vs Jaguars ELO 1568 (diff: -138)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: JAX 46% (−5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: JAX 53% (+2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Jaguars at Colts
The Jaguars visit the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN in NFL regular season Week 18 action.
Our model gives the Jaguars a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Colts to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Jaguars (medium): Colts ELO 1431 vs Jaguars ELO 1568 (diff: -138)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Colts (low): Colts are 1-2 at home this season; Jaguars are 1-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form is neutral: Insufficient games for recent form analysis
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Jacksonville Jaguars
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Indianapolis Colts
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Jaguars
Colts
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Indianapolis Colts
- Previous game54%IND win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Previous game62%JAX win probability
- Next game
Next game not scheduled yet
Other Week 18 games
- 53%NO win probability
- 55%CAR win probability
- 57%SF win probability
- 60%KC win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Colts has a 49% win probability, while Jaguars has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.