San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers vs San Francisco 49ers head-to-head
San Francisco 49ers 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring 49ers:
- ELO Rating. Chargers ELO 1478 vs 49ers ELO 1596 (diff: -118)
- Home Field Advantage. Chargers are 0-3 at home this season; 49ers are 2-0 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: SF 50% (−5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SF 53% (−2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
49ers at Chargers
The 49ers visit the Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA in NFL regular season Week 15 action.
Our model gives the 49ers a 55% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Chargers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the 49ers (low): Chargers ELO 1478 vs 49ers ELO 1596 (diff: -118)
- Home Field Advantage favors the 49ers (low): Chargers are 0-3 at home this season; 49ers are 2-0 on the road
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Chargers turnover differential (+0) vs 49ers (+0)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors San Francisco 49ers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Francisco 49ers
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
49ers
Chargers
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NFL Win Probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Los Angeles Chargers
- Previous game57%KC win probability
- Next game53%MIA win probability
San Francisco 49ers
Other Week 15 games
- 52%PHI win probability
- 59%BUF win probability
- 55%WSH win probability
- 57%NYG win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Chargers has a 45% win probability, while 49ers has a 55% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA.