Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders head-to-head
Washington Commanders 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Commanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Commanders are 1-1 at home this season; Falcons are 2-1 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WSH 52% (−3)
- If the rating edge were neutral: WSH 54% (−1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Falcons at Commanders
The Falcons visit the Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD in NFL regular season Week 15 action.
Our model gives the Commanders a 55% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Falcons to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Commanders (low): Commanders are 1-1 at home this season; Falcons are 2-1 on the road
- ELO Rating is neutral: Commanders ELO 1424 vs Falcons ELO 1417 (diff: +8)
- Head to Head is neutral: No recent head-to-head history available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Commanders
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Falcons
Commanders
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Washington Commanders
- Previous game58%SF win probability
- Next game67%MIN win probability
Atlanta Falcons
- Previous game53%CHI win probability
- Next game51%ATL win probability
Other Week 15 games
- 55%SF win probability
- 52%PHI win probability
- 59%BUF win probability
- 57%NYG win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Commanders has a 55% win probability, while Falcons has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD.