Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders head-to-head
Minnesota Vikings 67% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Vikings:
- Home Field Advantage. Vikings are 2-0 at home this season; Commanders are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating. Vikings ELO 1602 vs Commanders ELO 1424 (diff: +177)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 58% (−9)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MIN 61% (−6)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Commanders at Vikings
The Commanders visit the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN in NFL regular season Week 16 action.
Our model gives the Vikings a 67% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Commanders to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Vikings (high): Vikings are 2-0 at home this season; Commanders are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Vikings (medium): Vikings ELO 1602 vs Commanders ELO 1424 (diff: +177)
- Head to Head is neutral: No recent head-to-head history available
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Vikings
- ELO RatingFavors Minnesota Vikings
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Vikings are 2-0 at home this season; Commanders are 0-3 on the road
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Commanders
Vikings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Minnesota Vikings
- Previous game51%MIN win probability
- Next game55%MIN win probability
Washington Commanders
- Previous game58%SF win probability
- Next game64%JAX win probability
Other Week 16 games
- 55%PHI win probability
- 55%CHI win probability
- 54%DEN win probability
- 59%SEA win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Vikings has a 67% win probability, while Commanders has a 33% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.