Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears head-to-head
Buffalo Bills 59% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bills:
- ELO Rating. Bills ELO 1631 vs Bears ELO 1531 (diff: +100)
- Home Field Advantage. Bills are 2-1 at home this season; Bears are 2-1 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: BUF 55% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BUF 56% (−3)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bears at Bills
The Bears visit the Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY in NFL regular season Week 15 action.
Our model gives the Bills a 59% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Bears to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Bills (low): Bills ELO 1631 vs Bears ELO 1531 (diff: +100)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Bills (medium): Bills are 2-1 at home this season; Bears are 2-1 on the road
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Bills turnover differential (+0) vs Bears (+0)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Buffalo Bills
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Bears
Bills
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Buffalo Bills
- Previous game65%BUF win probability
- Next game54%DEN win probability
Chicago Bears
Other Week 15 games
- 55%SF win probability
- 52%PHI win probability
- 55%WSH win probability
- 57%NYG win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bills has a 59% win probability, while Bears has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY.