Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins head-to-head
Miami Dolphins 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Dolphins:
- Home Field Advantage. Dolphins are 0-2 at home this season; Chargers are 0-3 on the road
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIA 49% (−4)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MIA 55% (+2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Chargers at Dolphins
The Chargers visit the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL in NFL regular season Week 16 action.
Our model gives the Dolphins a 53% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Chargers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Dolphins (medium): Dolphins are 0-2 at home this season; Chargers are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Chargers (low): Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Chargers ELO 1478 (diff: -70)
- Recent Form is neutral: Insufficient games for recent form analysis
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Dolphins
- ELO RatingFavors Los Angeles Chargers
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Chargers
Dolphins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Miami Dolphins
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game58%BUF win probability
Los Angeles Chargers
Other Week 16 games
- 55%PHI win probability
- 55%CHI win probability
- 54%DEN win probability
- 59%SEA win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Dolphins has a 53% win probability, while Chargers has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.