Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions head-to-head
Detroit Lions 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Lions:
- ELO Rating. Falcons ELO 1417 vs Lions ELO 1544 (diff: -127)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: DET 47% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 53% (+2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Lions at Falcons
The Lions visit the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA in NFL regular season Week 13 action.
Our model gives the Lions a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Falcons to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Lions (medium): Falcons ELO 1417 vs Lions ELO 1544 (diff: -127)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Falcons (low): Falcons are 0-3 at home this season; Lions are 1-2 on the road
- Defensive Efficiency is neutral: Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Detroit Lions
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Falcons
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Lions
Falcons
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Atlanta Falcons
- Previous game53%CHI win probability
- Next game57%CLE win probability
Detroit Lions
- Previous game51%DET win probability
- Next game67%DET win probability
Other Week 13 games
- 52%LAR win probability
- 52%CLE win probability
- 54%TB win probability
- 55%CHI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Falcons has a 49% win probability, while Lions has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.