Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins
Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins head-to-head
Chicago Bears 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bears:
- ELO Rating. Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Bears ELO 1531 (diff: -123)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: CHI 49% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHI 53% (0)
Win probability movement
MIA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bears at Dolphins
The Bears visit the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL in NFL regular season Week 14 action.
Our model gives the Bears a 53% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Dolphins to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Bears (medium): Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Bears ELO 1531 (diff: -123)
- Home Field Advantage is neutral: Dolphins are 0-2 at home this season; Bears are 2-1 on the road
- Injuries is neutral: Similar injury situations: Dolphins (0 out) vs Bears (0 out)
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Chicago Bears
- Home Field AdvantageNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Bears
Dolphins
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
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NFL Weather Impact
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Miami Dolphins
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game63%GB win probability
Chicago Bears
- Previous game55%CHI win probability
- Next game59%BUF win probability
Other Week 14 games
- 55%NE win probability
- 59%BAL win probability
- 57%CLE win probability
- 67%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Dolphins has a 47% win probability, while Bears has a 53% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.