Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins head-to-head
Green Bay Packers 63% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Packers:
- Home Field Advantage. Packers are 2-1 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating. Packers ELO 1529 vs Dolphins ELO 1408 (diff: +121)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: GB 56% (−7)
- If the rating edge were neutral: GB 59% (−4)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Dolphins at Packers
The Dolphins visit the Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI in NFL regular season Week 15 action.
Our model gives the Packers a 63% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Dolphins to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Packers (high): Packers are 2-1 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Packers (medium): Packers ELO 1529 vs Dolphins ELO 1408 (diff: +121)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Packers turnover differential (+0) vs Dolphins (+0)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Green Bay Packers
- ELO RatingFavors Green Bay Packers
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Packers are 2-1 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Dolphins
Packers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Green Bay Packers
Miami Dolphins
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game53%MIA win probability
Other Week 15 games
- 55%SF win probability
- 52%PHI win probability
- 59%BUF win probability
- 55%WSH win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Packers has a 63% win probability, while Dolphins has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI.