Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers head-to-head
Las Vegas Raiders 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Raiders:
- Home Field Advantage. Raiders are 1-2 at home this season; Chargers are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: LV 49% (−5)
- If the rating edge were neutral: LV 56% (+2)
Win probability movement
LV home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Chargers at Raiders
The Chargers visit the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV in NFL regular season Week 14 action.
Our model gives the Raiders a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Chargers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Raiders (medium): Raiders are 1-2 at home this season; Chargers are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favors the Chargers (low): Raiders ELO 1415 vs Chargers ELO 1478 (diff: -64)
- Rest Days is neutral: Rest day data not available for this matchup
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Las Vegas Raiders
- ELO RatingFavors Los Angeles Chargers
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Chargers
Raiders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers
Other Week 14 games
- 55%NE win probability
- 59%BAL win probability
- 57%CLE win probability
- 67%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Raiders has a 54% win probability, while Chargers has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV.