Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders head-to-head
Denver Broncos 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Broncos:
- ELO Rating. Raiders ELO 1415 vs Broncos ELO 1598 (diff: -183)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: DEN 45% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DEN 55% (+3)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Broncos at Raiders
The Broncos visit the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV in NFL regular season Week 15 action.
Our model gives the Broncos a 52% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Raiders to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Broncos (medium): Raiders ELO 1415 vs Broncos ELO 1598 (diff: -183)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Raiders (low): Raiders are 1-2 at home this season; Broncos are 1-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form is neutral: Insufficient games for recent form analysis
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Denver Broncos
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Las Vegas Raiders
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Broncos
Raiders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Las Vegas Raiders
Denver Broncos
- Previous game60%DEN win probability
- Next game54%DEN win probability
Other Week 15 games
- 55%SF win probability
- 52%PHI win probability
- 59%BUF win probability
- 55%WSH win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Raiders has a 48% win probability, while Broncos has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV.