Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions head-to-head
Detroit Lions 57% to win. The biggest signal favoring Lions:
- Home Field Advantage. Lions are 2-0 at home this season; Bears are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 52% (−5)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DET 56% (−1)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bears at Lions
The Bears visit the Lions at Ford Field in Detroit, MI in NFL regular season Week 12 action.
Our model gives the Lions a 57% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Bears to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Lions (medium): Lions are 2-0 at home this season; Bears are 2-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating is neutral: Lions ELO 1544 vs Bears ELO 1531 (diff: +13)
- Defensive Efficiency is neutral: Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Lions
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Bears
Lions
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
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Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Detroit Lions
- Previous game51%DET win probability
- Next game51%DET win probability
Chicago Bears
- Previous game55%CHI win probability
- Next game55%CHI win probability
Other Week 12 games
- 54%LAR win probability
- 50%PHI win probability
- 57%BUF win probability
- 56%PIT win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Lions has a 57% win probability, while Bears has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ford Field in Detroit, MI.