Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers
Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers head-to-head
Buffalo Bills 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bills:
- ELO Rating. Packers ELO 1529 vs Bills ELO 1631 (diff: -102)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the rating edge were neutral: BUF 47% (−3)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BUF 52% (+2)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Bills at Packers
The Bills visit the Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI in NFL regular season Week 14 action.
Our model gives the Bills a 50% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Packers to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- ELO Rating favors the Bills (low): Packers ELO 1529 vs Bills ELO 1631 (diff: -102)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Packers (low): Packers are 2-1 at home this season; Bills are 3-0 on the road
- Recent Form is neutral: Insufficient games for recent form analysis
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Bills
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Green Bay Packers
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Bills
Packers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Green Bay Packers
Buffalo Bills
- Previous game65%BUF win probability
- Next game59%BUF win probability
Other Week 14 games
- 55%NE win probability
- 59%BAL win probability
- 57%CLE win probability
- 67%DET win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Packers has a 50% win probability, while Bills has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI.