New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets head-to-head
Miami Dolphins 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Dolphins:
- Home Field Advantage. Dolphins are 0-2 at home this season; Jets are 1-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIA 52% (−2)
- If the rating edge were neutral: MIA 53% (−1)
Win probability movement
MIA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Jets at Dolphins
The Jets visit the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL in NFL regular season Week 12 action.
Our model gives the Dolphins a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. For the Jets to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Dolphins (low): Dolphins are 0-2 at home this season; Jets are 1-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating is neutral: Dolphins ELO 1408 vs Jets ELO 1403 (diff: +5)
- Weather Impact is neutral: Weather data not available
is slightly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Dolphins
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Jets
No player data available
Dolphins
Learn About Our Analysis
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NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Miami Dolphins
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game67%DEN win probability
New York Jets
- Previous game52%NYJ win probability
- Next game51%DEN win probability
Other Week 12 games
- 54%LAR win probability
- 57%DET win probability
- 50%PHI win probability
- 57%BUF win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Dolphins has a 54% win probability, while Jets has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.