Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos vs Miami Dolphins head-to-head
Denver Broncos 67% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Broncos:
- Home Field Advantage. Broncos are 3-0 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating. Broncos ELO 1598 vs Dolphins ELO 1408 (diff: +189)
What would change the call
Win probability if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DEN 59% (−8)
- If the rating edge were neutral: DEN 61% (−6)
Win probability movement
DEN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Dolphins at Broncos
The Dolphins visit the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO in NFL regular season Week 13 action.
Our model gives the Broncos a 67% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Dolphins to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Broncos (high): Broncos are 3-0 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Broncos (medium): Broncos ELO 1598 vs Dolphins ELO 1408 (diff: +189)
- Turnover Differential is neutral: Broncos turnover differential (+0) vs Dolphins (+0)
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Broncos
- ELO RatingFavors Denver Broncos
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Broncos are 3-0 at home this season; Dolphins are 0-3 on the road
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
3 factors not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Dolphins
Broncos
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this week. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Denver Broncos
- Previous game60%DEN win probability
- Next game51%DEN win probability
Miami Dolphins
- Previous game56%CIN win probability
- Next game53%CHI win probability
Other Week 13 games
- 52%LAR win probability
- 52%CLE win probability
- 51%DET win probability
- 54%TB win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Broncos has a 67% win probability, while Dolphins has a 33% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO.